A real boom! For the next five years the golf industry should experience an unprecedented growth. Among all of the concerned regions, Europe and the Mediterranean seem poised to capture new market shares. With close to 3,000 new golf courses and an estimated 3 millions new golfers at the 2020 horizon, a brilliant future for golf tourism in these regions is all but certain. A trend that the attendants of the last «Golf Business Forum» organized in June in Prague could easily verify. According to the report published by the international audit firm KPMG during the forum, 4.1 million registered golfers and approximately 6,750 referenced golf courses are accounted for in Europe, the Middle-East and Africa. «But with an annual 6% demand growth and a 4% supply growth, within 15 years, more than 7 millions golfers will be offered 10,000 courses (…) Indeed golf course construction is expanding around the world, a tendency favoring real estate investments as well as local tourism development. This development being fueled by the increasing demand from tourist golfers in search of new experiences».

Spain as the leader
Honor to whom honor is due, Spain appears today as the country best equipped to face this new competition. Engaged in the battle for more then twenty years, the Iberian Peninsula (contrary to France and Italy) can boast a strong experience in golf course development. With 310 golf courses and 280,000 registered players (Jan. 2006 estimates), the golf business generates about 2.4 billion yearly thanks to the 500,000 visiting tourist golfers. Contrary to the first golf courses constructed in the early 80’s, the current projects involve massive investments. Close to Saragossa, a 15,000 residential units real estate program alongside an 18-hole golf course has started. In the surroundings of Murcia or Almeria, thousands of new residences are being constructed thanks to the initiative of major real estate companies partnering with international hotels operators such as Intercontinental or NH Hotels. Overall, by 2008 one hundred new projects will generate a marketplace availability of 30,000 new residential units. It is an unsurpassed deployment of forces in the Mediterranean.

Portugal sharpens its weapons
Main competitor for Spain, Portugal which was elected «Best 2006 Golf Destination» thanks to its golf courses in Algarve, wants to stay ahead of the game. According to Fernando Nunes Pedro, NGIC president (the National Golf Industry Counsel), in 2005 the golf industry has generated close to 1.8 billion Û of direct and indirect revenues (1.25% of the GDP). Portugal’s 75 golf courses allow it today to capture 5% of European golfers (0.5% of worldwide golfers). Always according to NGIC figures, 250,000 foreign visitors are welcomed annually in Portuguese golf courses, accounting for 1.1 million runs. This attendance mainly benefits the local upscale hotel lines, rich in five and six stars hotels. The expected rise in this sector gives new ideas to the managers in charge of Portuguese tourism. They consider developing resort tourism much like their Spaniard neighbors. In the long term, experts forecast the construction of 300,000 residential units (mostly villas) for these clients/golfers, representing an estimated sales figure of 45 billions Û! On a regional level, the Algarve province attracts most of the sizeable projects (4 out of 31 existing courses). The target customers? The Irish, Norwegian, German, Danish, Dutch or French who still have not experienced the assets of the destination: sunny climate, ocean proximity, relatively low cost of living, wonderful natural locations... Moreover, thanks to the growth of low cost airlines, Portugal should rapidly reach (even exceed) its goal: doubling the number of visiting golfers within the next 10 years. Another argument in favor of the country, the average cost of a built m2: 10 to 30% less than in Spain.

The Moroccan Ambitions
On the other side of the Mediterranean Sea, Morocco nourishes the same ambition: to double or triple the number of visiting golfers. The Kingdom expects 172,000 visitors at the 2010 horizon, compared to less than 60,000 today. With its «Azur Plan» guidelines, Morocco is developing 13 new golf courses which will join the 17 existing ones. These new projects go along with a strategy aiming at increasing the share of Moroccan golf destinations for their target customers (France, U.K, Northern Europe). How? By emphasizing the country’s competitive assets: geographic proximity, prestigious golf courses and high quality of service. In the long run, the authorities wish to diversify the proposed destinations (north, west and south of the Kingdom) while avoiding that golf tourism becomes a seasonal tourist activity. Another key success factor: the creation of a club: «Morocco Golf Product» created through the initiative of the O.N.M.T and involving tourism professionals, the Royal Moroccan Golf Federation, travel agencies and hotels.

Les chiffres
Key figures
10 to 50%: the difference between the average price of a residential unit (apartment or villa) built near a golf and that of a traditional residential unit.


The Rising Destinations
Facing these three golf powers, a dozen of countries are mercilessly competing against each other. Following the Moroccan example, the Turkish government bets on the development of one hundred new golf courses at the 2015 horizon. «Only a sensible increase in our offering will enable us to attract more tourist golfers» admits Ismet Aktekin, member of the International Relationship Counsel of the Turkish Golf Federation (4,000 registered golfers), making reference to the 50,000 foreign golfers (Northern Europe and U.K) that were hosted in 2005 and 2006. An assertion leading to the start of a new promotional campaign entitled «Turkey: your new golf destination».For now, the Turkish offering «positioned in the high end, but still affordable» is still focused on the seaside, in the Belek-Antalya region. A dozen of golf courses with an international standard, are offered at the heart of golf resorts stretching over several hectares and including 5-star hotels (35 as of today), thalassotherapy and fitness centers. And all this only three hours from the main European capitals. Soon, no less than 8 new golf courses should rise from the ground. Notably the Cornelia Deluxe Resort (18- + 9-hole) whose opening is scheduled for November 2006 in Belek, the Kaya Hotel, the Silence Beach Resort, the Papillon Hotel in Antalya and the Vita Park Hotel (a 2 x 18-hole) which will open at the end of 2006 in Bodrum.

Egypt makes her move
Very much like Turkey, Egypt would like to become «a golfer’s paradise ». This thanks to the development of eight new golf courses expected to attract and build loyalty among the German, British, American and Chinese tourists. On a global level, the Egyptian Ministry of Tourism would like to double the number of foreign tourists by 2014 (9.5 million tourists in 2006 including 2 to 3 % golfers). A realistic goal according to the estimates put forward at the 2005 World Travel and Tourism Council: a 6 % annual increase between 2006 and 2015 with a global sales figure of $ 12.2 billion at term. At the heart of this strategy, new niche markets: ecotourism, cultural tours and of course golf tourism. Emphasizing the importance of the current projects. For Egypt has only a dozen golf courses disseminated along the coast, in the desert and in the oases. A very limited offering that cannot grant the country a name on the map of international golf destinations. To achieve this, Egypt chose to give her new golf development project design to top professionals: Harradine, Gary Player (Soma’s Bay Cascades Golf Resort) and Nicklaus Design (Palms Hill Club Golf Spa & Resort). This latest project is expected to become the largest Egyptian golf complex (18 + 9 hole) and is a first for the country. The resort will go along with a residential real estate program aimed at the European clientele (70% of foreign tourists). To catch up with Morocco or the Gulf countries, Egypt can safely bet on her vast lands and significant government financing (mainly on the Red Sea and Mediterranean shores). These efforts were recognized when Egypt won the 2006 IAGTO “golf destination still to be discovered” award. On the infrastructure front, the airport terminals should be extended and modernized. But like in Antalya, Turkey, the development of the golf tourism offering remains linked to the improvement of security conditions, these tourist regions being potential targets for terrorists (cf. Sharm el Sheikh).

Tunisia in the race
With an average of 60,000 annual golfers, Tunisia quickly hopes to double the number of its courses (ten currently). To this end, the authorities consider various solutions: creation of a Tunisian golf label, organization of a national trophy, participation in specialized meetings (such as IGTM). The targeted markets? The United Kingdom and its 1.2 million tourist golfers, Germany (500,000), France (400,000) and the Netherlands (250,000). Because as recalled by Omar Sherif, director of the Citrus Golf in Hammamet (45 holes), “the golf has become a privileged reason for travel. The relationship between tourism and golf is increasingly evident. Golf tourism can help us diversify our offering, make our hotels profitable and spread out the tourist season. It is thus imperative to increase the number of courses as Morocco is doing and to open new air routes, in particular in direction of the Scandinavian countries.” Will the Tunisian student surpass its Moroccan teacher? To be continued…

Croatia and Bulgaria in marching order
After decades of relative torpor, these two destinations furbish their weapons. With only 3 golf courses in activity, Bulgaria, an old country of the Soviet block, wants to make up for lost time. Based in Dolna Baya (70 km from the capital Sofia), the new course in Borovets, conceived by Jack Nicklaus, extends over 900,000 m2? with a length of 7,000 m… Leant against a resort including top-ofthe- range hotels, sporting centers, commercial and residential real estate, Borovets “represents an ideal opportunity for the golfers in the search of an excellent real investment represents” according to Ali Qasir, the director of the complex. A one bedroom apartment goes for 55,000 Û, 75,000 Û for a two bedroom (83 m2), that is to say prices half those of Spain for equal services. Same report for Croatia. According to several observers, the country should experience one of the strongest progressions of the market for European tourist destinations. Several billion Û of investments are already programmed for the next five years with the objective to develop the tourist potential of the country. First sizeable project, the Porto Mariccio resort on the Adriatic Sea. Also conceived by Nicklaus Design, the program includes a luxury hotel with spa (250 rooms – Kempinski), fitness center as well as an important real estate portfolio with 300 apartments, 90 villas and a 350 spaces marina. This should reduce the lack of structures of this type: only three courses in service to date in Croatia for ten million tourists… Not far from there, in southern Italy, it is Sicily which is experiencing the strongest progression of the national golf park. More ambitious, Greece could accommodate well over 3 billion Û in golf investments under the impulse of national companies and foreign investors. The Greek State is indeed supervising 17 projects including villas, luxury hotels, fitness centers, marinas… distributed in the Peloponnese, in Crete, in the center and the north of the country. With an as idyllic location, Cyprus offers only three courses to date. Lack of available land excluding any sizeable project, as in Malta •
David Danielzik

The competition of the gulf countries
In the Middle East, Dubai and the other United Arab Emirates appear as potential market leaders. Conscious that it should right now find a palliative to the decrease of its oil reserves, Dubai is mobilizing several hundreds of million dollars in first grade tourist and golf infrastructures,
 such as Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club, Al Badia Golf Resort & Spa, Nad Al Sheba Club or Jebel Ali Golf Resort & Spa. Courses gathered around a common marketing strategy: Golf in Dubai. Seven courses soon to be complemented by ten others among which Dubai City Golf actually being developed. On the whole, these represent 50 billion $ which will be devoted to the development of the tourist offering up to 2010. On the infrastructure front, close to fifty A380 Airbus have been ordered and the Dubai airport is about to unveil a 3rd terminal with the acknowledged aim of attracting 15 million visitors per year (3 times more than today). And it seems that the whole region is betting on golf. In Abou Dhabi, three courses are being developed, same in Oman and Bahrain.

Barriers to development
The conclusions of the KPMG report put forward the land problems which limit the projects of scale in the countries of old Europe (contrary to the North African and south-east European countries which offer enticing prospects: economic growth, land availability…) Additional handicap for countries like France or Spain: environmental requirements (water management…) which should limit the concretization of new projects. With longer processing duration, obtaining building permit is also a problem, which could weaken the golf economy in these two countries in the 10 next years. Lastly, the risks related to international terrorism represent serious threats for the development of the offer in the majority of the emerging countries: Morocco, Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, the Gulf Countries.

Epilogue
At the end of this review, major tendencies become apparent. Above all, the market segment aimed at by the Mediterranean countries is mainly focused on the Western European tourist (France, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Scandinavian countries …) Why? Very simple: these customers are numerous, rich and geographically close (between 1 and 3 hours from the European capitals). 2nd observation, these countries have serious assets to attract this target customer: exoticism, cost of living relatively low, political stability, nfrastructures, exceptional climate and of course, an abundant offer of quality golf. Lastly, for the current flows of tourists and of the golf projects to come, the Mediterranean basin is little by little positioning itself as the world leader for golf tourism. But beware; only the countries with clearly defined objectives and established means for reaching them and with a true political will to develop top-of-the-range golf tourism will be great winners of this golf war.